For the crude oil importer, the past week has been quite a rollercoaster. On May 3rd, OPEC announced that it would monitor the average price of crude oil in seven key markets to ensure it stayed above $34 per barrel. The upward trend didn't slow down. By May 5th, prices broke through the $35 mark, reaching $35.30—a 13-year high. Then, on May 8th, the first working day after China’s May Day holiday, news came from the New York Stock Exchange that light crude oil had approached $40 per barrel. Although global oil prices have surged, domestic refined oil prices don’t immediately reflect these changes. However, the sharp rise has sparked concerns among businesses and even ordinary consumers in Shanghai, who fear that sustained high prices could eventually impact local fuel costs and increase overall living expenses. Three major questions are now at the forefront of public attention: How long will this oil price surge last? Why is the market so hot? And what can be done about it? Industry experts say the current high fever isn’t a temporary blip. Since the Iraq war began two months ago, the oil market has remained under pressure. Over the past year, despite some fluctuations, prices have continued to climb overall. Analysts' expectations have shifted dramatically—where many once predicted an average of $24–$25 per barrel for this year, the current consensus is that oil prices will stay above $30 or even reach $40 by the end of the year. Factors like geopolitical tensions, OPEC production cuts, and unresolved issues in Iraq are often cited as causes, but the persistent high prices are increasingly driven by speculation. Even when the U.S. Energy Department reported a rise in gasoline inventories, it wasn’t enough to calm the market. For Chinese companies, especially those importing crude oil and their downstream industries, rising oil prices mean increased cost pressures. While the weak U.S. dollar has somewhat cushioned the blow globally, the stable exchange rate between the yuan and the dollar means Chinese firms still feel the real impact of higher oil prices. Moreover, uncertainty remains. Although many believe the high oil prices will persist, the recent spike near $40 per barrel has raised fears of sudden volatility. Deciding when and how much to buy has become a risky move. Domestic oil prices may lag, but they will eventually follow international trends. In the past year, every adjustment to domestic prices was tied to rising global oil costs. The last adjustment was on April 1st, with gasoline prices increasing by 8% to 8.4%. This has put pressure on both consumers and oil companies. With international prices continuing to climb—OPEC's average has risen nearly $3 per barrel since April, and U.S. light crude has jumped almost $5 in a month—industry insiders expect another round of price increases soon if global prices remain high. (Reporter: Chen Chunyan)

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