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Forecast of several development trends of LED industry in 2017
On the whole, after the LED industry experienced price increases, expansion, mergers and acquisitions, and environmental impacts in 2016, fierce changes are taking place. In 2016, lighting companies are looking for their own high-margin sub-blue ocean market and special application areas, such as plant lighting, intelligent lighting, automotive LED, UV LED and IR LED, etc. After the industry experienced price increases, expansion, mergers and acquisitions, and environmental impacts, fierce changes are taking place. In 2016, lighting companies are looking for their own high-margin sub-blue ocean market and special application areas, such as plant lighting, intelligent lighting, automotive LED, UV LED and IR LED, etc., to take the differentiated route and avoid the red sea competition of blue LED. As far as the current environment of LED lighting is concerned, the whole industry is in the process of persisting in the transformation, which is the only way. Recently, the 2017 LED New Discovery Forum was successfully held in Jiangmen. The director of the Guangdong Semiconductor Lighting Industry Joint Innovation Center (GSC) and the dean of the Guangdong Gaozhi Emerging Industry Development Research Institute, made an important speech on the same day. Xiaobian specializes it into a text, one by one, to Yi Zhiyou. What is to be presented today is the last part of the outlook for the LED industry in 2017. Government subsidies are narrowing the supply and demand structure of the LED industry. LED lighting will gradually improve as an emerging industry. Since 2009, it has been favored by the state. The subsidy is huge. Even some government subsidies obtained by government subsidies account for half of the performance in a year. Turn losses into profits. According to statistics, taking Sanan Optoelectronics as an example, as a subsidy for the LED industry, from 2010 to 2015, the amount of subsidies exceeded 3 billion yuan. According to analysis, the expected development trend is that with the maturity and reshuffle of the LED industry, during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the government gradually adjusted the subsidy policy, and the upstream chip subsidies are gradually narrowing. The narrowing of subsidies at the government level will inhibit the disorderly expansion of LED chip production from the source of the industry chain, and it is expected to transfer subsidies to the LED lighting application terminal, which will pull the LED industry chain from the demand side, and the supply and demand structure of China's LED industry chain will gradually improve. . Accelerated penetration of LED lighting market Small-pitch display will usher in an outbreak From October 1, 2016, incandescent lamps for general lighting of 15W and above are prohibited from being sold and imported. This is interpreted by the industry as a comprehensive ban on the ban, and the penetration rate of LED lighting products in the domestic market will further accelerate. It is expected that the penetration rate of LED lighting products in the domestic market will reach 48% in 2017. 2016 is a year of vigorous development of small-pitch LED screen products. Even in the third quarter, there was a situation in which the upstream was out of stock and the demand exceeded supply. In 2016, the total demand for LEDs with small pitch indoors and outdoors was 141.3 billion, while the current production capacity of small-pitch LEDs is around 70 billion, and there is still a large gap between supply and demand in the future. We expect a small-pitch display to erupt in the next 2-3 years. In 2017, the replacement rate of small-pitch LEDs to DLP can reach 40-50% or more, and by 2020, the replacement rate is expected to reach 70% and 80%. LED manufacturers' new Nanhai 2017 infrared LED/laser lighting welcomes unlimited business opportunities. The introduction of biometrics, including smart phones, tablets and wearable devices, will continue to increase rapidly, due to the use of IRLED components in applications such as iris and face recognition. The future market has considerable growth potential. It is estimated that by 2020, the output value of IR LED (excluding sensors) will reach 710 million US dollars (about 4.71 billion yuan), with a compound annual growth rate of 24%, becoming the new blue ocean of LED manufacturers. On November 13, 2016, Nakamura Shuji Laser Lighting Lab was unveiled in Shenzhen. Laser illumination has a smaller light-emitting area, higher luminous efficiency, easier sensory focus and longer illumination distance, and can be widely used in automobile headlights and other fields. In automotive lighting applications, world-renowned car brands such as BMW and Audi are working to apply this technology to new products. However, due to the current high cost of laser lighting, the application rate is not high, I believe that the future will be a big trend. Backward production capacity phasing out the LED industry from the era of excessive competition into the stable income era Since the second half of 2016, with the continuous rise of raw materials such as circuit boards and gold wires, and the increase in labor and rental costs, LED companies have also shifted from price wars to value. war. Since 2016, LED chips and packaging have increased in price successively, marking the end of the overall reshuffle of LED industry chain, and the industry has entered a stable income era from the era of excessive competition. It is expected that in 2017, under the price hike of the overall LED industry, some unskilled SMEs will gradually be eliminated from the market. Future orders will gradually be concentrated in major manufacturers, and the phenomenon of Evergrande, the largest LED industry, will become more apparent. Sanan Optoelectronics started the first shot of price increase in 2017. From January 10, 2017, the price of S-30MB/S-32BB series products will be raised by 8%. The reform of supply side will be strengthened, and the intensity of elimination will be further strengthened. The business model of the cottage will no longer be used. Adapt to the future LED industry