“Drought intensified in the southwestern region, and the power supply in the five southern provinces and regions has been in full emergency.” The China Southern Power Grid Corporation issued a report on the 31st afternoon that the power gap in the entire network has reached nearly 15%, and the worst power shortages in the five southern provinces have continued to increase in five years. .

Since late July of this year, China Southern Power Grid, which has a shortage of water and coal, has repeatedly issued power shortage warnings. Analysts pointed out that this may prompt the government to speed up the approval of a number of thermal power projects, but as long as coal-fired linkage mechanism is not formed, the power shortage situation in the five southern provinces will become the norm.

The Red Alert of Southern China’s Southern China Power Grid has recently “warned” that Guangxi and Guizhou provinces have entered a red alert state for power supply, and the power gaps are close to 40% and 35%, respectively. Guizhou Province has officially started to deal with drought at the provincial level on August 26. Disaster response emergency response. This is also the most “serious” power shortage notice issued by China Southern Power Grid since August.

At the beginning of August, China Southern Power Grid expects that the largest power shortage in the entire network in the third quarter may reach 12 million kilowatts, with an overall power shortage of more than 8%. As of August 30, China Southern Power Grid stated that there are 14-day peak load shifts exceeding 10 million kilowatts for the entire month, with the maximum peak load reaching 14.79 million kilowatts, or nearly 15% of the power gap.

“The main reason is that the deposit and incoming water conditions are lower than expected.” According to relevant sources of the China Southern Power Grid, hydropower accounts for 30% of the power supply of the South China Power Grid. In August, the water inflow from the Hongshui River and the Wujiang River Basin has been nearly 90% respectively. 80%, the current two large watershed storage value of 2.5 billion kwh, a decrease of 85%.

On the other hand, due to factors such as lack of coal, poor coal quality, and unit overhaul, the outage of the thermal power units in the region of the China Southern Power Grid has been severely restricted and their output has been severely restricted. Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guizhou have affected 147, 573,559 million kilowatts respectively.

According to sources from the China Electricity Council, the competent authorities did not actively intervene in the absence of coal in the five southern provinces, and there was no significant increase in power coal stocks. After the winter dry season, the southern electricity gap is likely to continue to increase.

Forced coal-fired electricity linkage For the situation in which hydropower relied on the sky for food and the lack of output, Zhang Boting, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Hydroelectric Engineering, believed that the southern power shortage may prompt the government to increase investment in hydropower and water conservancy projects, thereby bringing investment to large-scale hydropower projects. Investment Opportunities. He pointed out that the key reason for the failure of hydropower is that the capacity of water resources regulation is not strong. If the dam has a strong water storage capacity, even if it enters a dry season, hydropower can be guaranteed.

However, a securities firm researcher pointed out that since 2010, the country has accelerated the approval of large-scale hydropower projects, but the construction period of large-scale hydropower projects is 6-9 years, and it is difficult to solve the problem of mediation capacity of hydropower stations in the short term. To solve the problem of power shortage in China Southern Power Grid, it is necessary to increase the enthusiasm of thermal power, but thermal power companies have suffered large losses due to rising coal prices.

According to the results of the economic performance of the power companies announced by the CEC in the first seven months of this year, the thermal power business losses of the five major power generating groups in the first seven months amounted to RMB 18.09 billion, which represented an increase of RMB 11.3 billion. According to the above-mentioned researcher, in response to the “electricity shortage”, although the competent departments have accelerated the approval of thermal power projects, their enthusiasm for starting construction of some thermal power companies is not high due to the loss of power generation.

Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, also pointed out that thermal power still accounts for 70% of the electricity consumption in the five southern provinces. If the thermal power output is relatively large, the power gap in China Southern Power Grid will decrease. He believes that due to the low “enthusiasm” of coal-fired power plants, electricity coal stocks are insufficient. In the event of an emergency, local electricity shortages will result.

“The five southern provinces have also joined the ranks of electricity shortages, which may force the competent authorities to solve the coal and electricity contradictions.” Lin Boqiang believes that the key to alleviating the power shortage is to straighten out the relationship between coal, power generation, and the power grid as the most effective method. Coal and electricity linkage, that is, when the coal price rises sharply, through the coordination of the competent authorities requires that each link is digested, while supplementing other policies to compensate for the loss of power generation companies. As a result, the problem of power supply shortage may be effectively alleviated.