The only export in the Persian Gulf, which is responsible for 1/3 of the world’s oil exports, is known as the “Middle East Tank Valve” in the Hormuz Strait. In recent days, due to the confrontation between Europe, the United States and Iran, the slow recovery of the global economy in 2012 has added another hint. haze.

"The confrontation"

On January 2, 2012, Iran had just completed a 10-day large-scale military exercise. The main area of ​​this exercise was in the Strait of Hormuz. The exercise area spans about 2,000 kilometers. During the exercise, the Iranian military tested a variety of missiles. At the same time, the U.S. and Iranian government conducted a public debate on the issue of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

On January 6, Ali Fadawi, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy, told the media that Iran planned to hold more military exercises in February to express its dissatisfaction with the West’s frequent sanctions against Iran.

Earlier, a series of fierce disputes broke out between Iran and Europe and the United States. The diplomatic turmoil with Britain, the shooting down of U.S. drones, the warning of U.S. aircraft carriers, and the country’s nuclear issue all caused the confrontation between Europe, the United States, and Iran to escalate. U.S. President Barack Obama signed a bill on December 31, 2011, to impose new sanctions on Iran, including new sanctions aimed at reducing Iranian oil revenues.

On January 4, 2012, the European Union’s message that it “banned the import of Iranian oil” broke the calm of the global capital market, and international crude oil prices rose. Brent crude oil futures rose more than 1 percentage point and soared to more than 113 US dollars per barrel. It hit a fresh high for the past 7 weeks. The EU is currently Iran’s second largest export destination for crude oil, while Iran, OPEC’s second largest oil producer, is also one of the world’s largest oil exporters. This makes the oil economy's influence on both Europe, the United States and Iran very important.

Not only that, but the Asian region will also be affected. 80% of crude oil exported from the Persian Gulf will be shipped to Asia. Once Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it is bound to cause a rapid economic contraction in the energy-strapped Asian region. The important carriers that have spurred the global economic recovery are under tremendous pressure. Therefore, economic analysts said that once the United States and Europe launched a war against Iran, international oil prices will soar, rising within 50% will reach 50% within a few days, and will lead to the US dollar, gold and other sought-after hedge funds, while also leading to just The restored world economy was hit again.

Oil and natural gas are the economic lifeline of Iran. Its daily production capacity is currently 4.1 million barrels, and oil revenue accounts for 90% of all foreign exchange earnings. Since 1979, the United States has imposed economic sanctions against Iran. Since Iran’s President Ahmadinejad began nuclear tests in 2005, the United States has increased its sanctions against Iran. However, the United States has not yet imposed substantial sanctions on Iran’s oil. This is mainly due to Iran’s decisive position in the global oil market as a whole, and Iran’s geographical location is obvious – it is in the Persian Gulf – Iran’s instability is bound to This has caused the global economy to collapse, and the United States, as the world’s largest economy and extremely dependent on crude oil imports, cannot naturally be left alone. This time, Iran’s very hard-line attitude has caused European and American countries to face down. Countries are now in a critical period of the change of government. The domestic political crisis and the uncertainties of the global economy have forced Europe and the United States to join forces to impose sanctions on Iran and force Iran to sit back to the negotiating table.

The economic exchange between China and Iran, which accounts for 20% of Iran’s total oil exports, is Iran’s largest oil buyer. This time the US and Iran confronted the escalation of the situation, and all countries were concerned about China's attitude and analysis of the impact on China. Here, we will briefly understand the economic exchanges between China and Iran.

Sino-Iranian trade began in 1950. After the 1990s, when China and Iran really entered into frequent trade relations, energy became the largest trade volume between the two countries. China is the main exporter of Iranian mineral products, and Iran is currently the third largest crude oil supplier in China. Big oil supplier.

According to the latest data from China Customs, China imported 2.522 million tons of crude oil from Iran in October 2011. Iran has become its second largest importer of crude oil. At the same time, Iran’s machinery and equipment depend on China and cooperate closely with the military industry.

According to data released by Reuters, China and Iran’s bilateral trade in 2010 totaled more than 20 billion U.S. dollars, and there are many infrastructure construction agreements. China has built Tehran’s subways, power plants, and non-ferrous smelters in Iran, and China’s Major petrochemical companies - PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC have signed cooperation contracts for a number of upstream projects in Iran. PetroChina now holds 75% of Iran's MIS oil field rights and oilfield operating rights. In addition, it also has a "3 block" exploration and development integrated repurchase contract with a total area of ​​8,309 square kilometers. It is currently Iran's largest Chinese-funded oil company. Iran also gives the largest discount to Chinese companies.

According to the Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance of Iran, in the field of mining and industry, Chinese companies can enjoy the 40% tax-free concession for 4 consecutive years. If they invest in underdeveloped regions, they can enjoy 10 years of tax exemption.

China’s reliance on crude oil imports will inevitably lead to a significant impact on China by the US-Iraqi confrontation. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the war between Europe, America and Iran will inevitably escalate international crude oil market prices. Once oil prices soar, they will The economic impact will appear immediately.

At present, 70% or even more than 80% of China's oil is imported from overseas. Given the increase in industrial production and the large amount of car ownership, China's crude oil demand in 2012 will maintain steady growth. As Iran, the third largest crude oil supplier to China, the importance of maintaining stable supply of crude oil to China is self-evident. As of now, China's oil reserves are slightly higher than 110 million barrels, which is only enough to maintain one month's supply.

The rise in crude oil prices will also increase the cost of China's industrial raw materials. However, China is trying hard to reduce the inflation rate to around 4%. Once the world's oil prices rise sharply, it is likely to increase the pressure of China's imported inflation. As a result, the difficulty of China's economy and monetary policy will increase, which will lead to an increasingly confusing economic situation in China in 2012. Once the Middle East oil route is cut off, the Chinese economy will undoubtedly face an even greater threat.

At the same time, China’s Chinese-funded institutions and businessmen in Iran also felt the tremendous pressure brought about by the growing economic sanctions imposed by the United States. As international capital flows into and out of Iran, it has brought tremendous pressure on the construction projects of Chinese-funded institutions.

According to the report of Xinhua News Agency, Chinese enterprises in Iran mainly focus on energy, communications, and infrastructure construction. The volume of funds flowing through construction projects is huge. The aggressive sanctions measures in Western countries affect the flow of international capital into and out of Iran. Chinese-funded institutions The development of the construction project was hindered and therefore affected the development of Chinese companies.

In recent days, the Iranian currency Rial has depreciated by more than one-third, prices of imported goods have skyrocketed, and prices of goods and raw materials have risen sharply. The constant devaluation of the Iranian currency has also caused Chinese businessmen to lose a lot, and because the United States passed a The sanctions imposed by the financial industry also made Chinese banks shrink their loans for companies investing in Iraq. This has led some Chinese businessmen to believe that the prospect of investing in Iran is not optimistic.

The current situation in Iran has forced China to make accurate judgments on Iran and the Middle East and implement necessary measures and actions. Due to the special geographic location and abundant energy resources in the Middle East, China will continue to handle the affairs of the Middle East with energy security as its primary foreign policy in the coming years. The strategic position of the Middle East in China’s overall diplomacy has been further enhanced.

In the course of the current international system transformation and the reconstruction of the international political and economic order, the great powers are the leading forces. China should make good use of the permanent members of the United Nations to help and coordinate disputes and frictions between big countries and Middle East countries. China should resolutely oppose the implementation of unilateralism in the Middle East, advocate dialogue and cooperation, maintain the stability and sustainable development in the Middle East, and further safeguard the rapid and healthy development of China-Middle East bilateral trade so that the two sides can complement each other.

For more than half a century, China’s relations with the Islamic countries in the Middle East have always had a friendly tradition of mutual respect and equal treatment compared with the US and Europe and their relations. This is an advantage and highlight of China’s foreign relations.

In the future development, China will still rely on the Middle East in terms of energy demand and sea lane security. In coping with global challenges such as non-traditional security threats and climate change, it is also inseparable from cooperation with Islamic countries in the Middle East. Therefore, the early strengthening of communication and coordination with the most thorny but globally-affected Islamic countries in the West is both conducive to the promotion of mutual benefit and win-win outcomes between Islamic countries in China and the Middle East, and is also conducive to resolving the continuing provocations and abuses of Western countries towards China. Pressure.

At the same time, the Chinese side should also vigorously strengthen humanistic diplomacy including religious exchanges, expand China's influence, and use soft power to establish a good image in the Middle East.