Affected by the "electricity shortage", both alkali prices began to rise

On May 31st, Qingdao Alkali Industry rose by 10.03% to RMB9.87, which echoed the collective rise of soda ash and chlor-alkali plates, chlor-alkali chemicals, Yinglite, Shandong Haihua, Sanyou Chemicals, and Shuanghuan Technology. The trend is more eye-catching. Analysts believe that the market is optimistic about the important factors related to the company is the NDRC raised the price of non-resident electricity.

Before this, under the influence of the "electricity shortage", the overall operating rate of the industry fell, and the prices of soda ash and chlor-alkali have shown an upward trend, especially soda ash. Under the influence of rising costs, the two alkali prices are expected to “float in the air”.

Prices may increase

The National Development and Reform Commission decided to increase the non-civilian electricity prices in 15 provinces and cities in Shanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu since June 1. The average price of electricity sold will increase by 1.67 points per one degree. The National Development and Reform Commission requires all localities to prohibit preferential tariffs for high-energy-consuming enterprises.

Soda ash and chlor-alkali, as high-energy-consumption sub-sectors in the chemical industry, have suffered first. According to estimates from China CITIC Investment, according to the increase in electricity price, the cost of caustic soda will rise by 32 yuan/ton, the cost of calcium carbide will increase by 47 yuan/ton, and the cost of PVC will increase by 107 yuan/ton. With the promotion of cost, the price of related products will inevitably rise further.

Some investors worry that the overcapacity in the soda ash industry and the chlor-alkali industry is more serious, and it may be difficult for the cost increase to be successfully transmitted to the downstream. However, some analysts pointed out that under the influence of the “electricity shortage”, we should reconsider “surplus”. Taking soda ash as an example, according to incomplete statistics, as of the end of 2010, China had a total production capacity of about 24 million tons of soda ash. The same-year output was 20.43 million tons, and the apparent consumption was 18.858 million tons, but the “electricity shortage” led to a decline in the operating rate. The overall “surplus” situation is not serious and the cost transmission will be relatively smooth. Compared with other companies, listed companies have higher energy efficiency and are not the first to be affected, so they can benefit from it.

In fact, product prices have already been reflected. Ni Chuanjun, a business analyst, said that in May, the soda ash market began its crazy show, and the market price rose rapidly. The latest factory average price of domestic light-weight soda ash and heavy soda ash soared to 2030 yuan/ton, 2080 yuan respectively. / Tons, monthly gains of up to 11.64% and 12.43%.

However, the price of PVC is not so eye-catching. Business analyst Xue Jinlei believes that the main reason for the relatively flat price of PVC is that the downstream operating rate is also very low, the demand is in the off-season. In addition, the recent performance of oil prices is not enough to stimulate the PVC prices to rise sharply, but the PVC industry is very sensitive to the cost of electricity. Under the influence of the increase in electricity prices, the further increase in product prices is the inevitable result.

Optimistic about upstream and downstream integrated enterprises

The increase in cost-driven product prices means that profits do not necessarily increase, so some market participants are not optimistic. However, analysts pointed out that some companies do a better job of upstream and downstream integration. The increase in profit from product price increases is relatively certain. In addition, even companies with rising costs may have trading opportunities.

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