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DMC: Overcapacity investment should be cautious
By the end of 2003, the annual production capacity of dimethyl carbonate (DMC) in China had reached 73,000 tons. However, due to the limited capacity of the actual market, the operating rate of the equipment is very low, only 31.5%, and there is a relative surplus of supply and demand. In spite of this, some domestic companies and regions still include dimethyl carbonate in development priorities. According to existing plans, if all are implemented, it is expected that by the year 2008, the annual output capacity of domestic dimethyl carbonate will exceed 150,000 tons, while the demand in the same period will be only 56600 tons, which shows the market risk. In 2003, the actual consumption of dimethyl carbonate in China was about 6,300 tons, and it was mainly used in medicine, solid phosgene, pesticides and fine chemical intermediates. In 2003, the total consumption of dimethyl carbonate in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry was approximately 3,000 tons. Among them, ciprofloxacin is a product with a large amount of dimethyl carbonate and consumes about 1,800 tons. In addition, in the production of norfloxacin, dimethyl carbonate was used in place of dimethyl sulphate in recent years, and its consumption was about 1,200 tons. In the pharmaceutical industry, quinolones have good curative effects, low prices, and are safe and convenient to use. In the future, consumption will continue to grow, and the demand for dimethyl carbonate will increase significantly. In addition, with the further reduction of the cost and price of dimethyl carbonate, and further strengthening of domestic environmental protection policies, dimethyl carbonate will be used in the pharmaceutical industry to replace dimethyl sulphate as a methylating agent and will be widely promoted. This is also the market where dimethyl carbonate has the most growth potential in the pharmaceutical industry. It is expected that by 2005 and 2008, the consumption of dimethyl carbonate in the domestic pharmaceutical sector will reach 4,500 tons and 8,000 tons, respectively. In 2003, China produced about 4,600 tons of solid phosgene, all using the dimethyl carbonate route, and consumed about 1400 tons of dimethyl carbonate. In the long run, solid phosgene will have room for development. It is expected that domestic solid phosgene output will reach 6,300 tons and 10,000 tons respectively in 2005 and 2008, and 1900 tons and 3,000 tons of dimethyl carbonate will be consumed respectively. The consumption of dimethyl carbonate in China's pesticide industry is relatively small, with an annual total of no more than 600 tons. In recent years, phosgene gas production and supply channels have been greatly improved. With cost reasons, the use of dimethyl carbonate in place of phosgene to produce carbamate pesticides will be limited. Demand for dimethyl carbonate will basically remain in place. At present, China's polycarbonate production plants use phosgene as the raw material and use the interfacial polymerization method to produce polycarbonate. Therefore, at present, China does not use dimethyl carbonate in polycarbonate production. However, from recent developments, a large number of research institutes in China are vigorously studying the non-phosgene method of production of diphenyl carbonate and polycarbonate, and there are also domestic plans to build non-phosgene polycarbonate, if implemented. It will soon become the largest consumer of dimethyl carbonate in China. It is expected that the annual consumption of dimethyl carbonate will reach 20,000 tons. It is expected that after 2010, the non-phosgene polycarbonate industry will develop rapidly, which will drive the rapid growth of the dimethyl carbonate market. In other fields, mobile phone and portable computers and other mobile appliances industries will see a certain increase in the demand for dimethyl carbonate in the fields of production of isocyanates, coatings, and ink solvents. Due to the restrictions on downstream product development and the rapid growth of domestic equipment production capacity, the search for product exports has become a hot spot for domestic dimethyl carbonate enterprises to compete for the market. It is expected that in the coming years, China's dimethyl carbonate exports will maintain a certain growth rate. In 2003, China's export volume reached 7,000 tons, which exceeded the actual domestic consumption, making exports the main flow of domestic dimethyl carbonate. At present, the main problems in China's dimethyl carbonate industry are: Relative production surplus According to development plans for all regions and related enterprises, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, Xinjiang, and other places will still plan to build 10,000 tons. For the above dimethyl carbonate plant, if these plans are implemented, the domestic dimethyl carbonate plant will expand at a high speed. The consumption of dimethyl carbonate in the market is still concentrated in some traditional fields. In areas such as solvents, polycarbonates, and gasoline additives that are generally considered promising, consumption of dimethyl carbonate is still in its infancy and will be considerable. Maintain this status quo for a long time. The limited capacity of the actual market is insufficient to support the development needs of the domestic production capacity of over 100,000 tons. Process similarity, new technology development and application deficiency At present, most of the domestic dimethyl carbonate plant has been built using the transesterification process, the device differentiation is low, the technical level is quite, and the oxidized carbonyl synthesis process commonly used abroad, domestic Only Hubei Xingfa Group has built a set of 4000 tons/year devices. The industry entered the era of meager profits, fierce market competition, the price of dimethyl carbonate dropped again and again, in the long run will remain at 7,000 to 8,000 yuan / ton level. In the current process technology and raw material price levels, domestic production of dimethyl carbonate costs about 6400 yuan / ton, the profit margin is very small. In order to avoid unnecessary waste of resources due to overheating of investment, the author suggests: First, invest prudently. With existing domestic production capacity already surpassing and market pressure further increasing, corporate investment should adopt a more cautious attitude and avoid redundant construction. For areas where coal resources are abundant and where carbon-chemical engineering has been planned, it is necessary to carefully analyze the competitiveness of products on the basis of ensuring the advanced and reliable sources of technology and comprehensively consider the construction of dimethyl carbonate. The second is to increase market development efforts in downstream applications. The application of dimethyl carbonate in place of dimethyl sulphate as a methylating agent for chemical raw materials, as an organic solvent in coating production, and as an alternative to MTBE for gasoline additives, has yet to be further promoted and exploited. The third is to increase the development of new technologies and promote structural adjustment. In order to fundamentally solve the problem of lack of competitiveness of the product, attention should be paid to the development and application of new technology of dimethyl carbonate. The key technologies that have been developed include oxo-carbonyl synthesis, the direct synthesis of dimethyl carbonate from CO2 and methanol, and urea alcoholysis.