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Since March of this year, the increase in the gross industrial output value of the petroleum and chemical industries has been on a monthly declining trend, indicating that the effect of macroeconomic control policies has gradually emerged. The petrochemical association expects that the production of China's chemical products may further decline in the second half of the year. With the further slowdown in production growth, the growth in the output value of the petrochemical industry will also gradually slow down in the second half of the year. It is expected that the increase will be around 25%.
Increase in prices of production factors to increase corporate pressure
National Bureau of Statistics data show that in May the country's oil and chemical industry completed industrial output value of 564.06 billion yuan, an increase of 28.7%, an increase of 9.2 percentage points year-on-year increase. Among them, the output value of new products was 30.34 billion yuan, an increase of 39.3% year-on-year. In terms of sub-industries, the output value of the chemical industry was 31.165 billion yuan, accounting for 55.3% of the industry's total output value, an increase of 30.4% year-on-year; the output value of the oil and natural gas extraction industry was 90.57 billion yuan, accounting for 16%, an increase of 37.8%; the output value of the oil refining industry was 150.68 billion yuan. , accounting for 26.7%, an increase of 20%. From January to May, the total output value of the petrochemical industry stood at 2,562.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, and the increase rate increased by 9.7 percentage points year-on-year.
From the output point of view, the national crude oil production in May was 16.182 million tons, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year, which was the highest monthly output since the beginning of this year, and crude oil production stabilized. The output of natural gas was 7.3 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and the growth rate was down 14.3% year-on-year. From January to May, the country's crude oil production was 78.364 million tons, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year; natural gas production was 35.09 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%.
The petrochemical association pointed out that due to the intensification of the domestic oil price upside down, the enthusiasm of the oil refining companies is not high, and the production of refined oil products has further declined. In May, the national crude oil processing volume was 27.78 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, which was the first decline since 2006. 16.52 million tons of refined oil was produced, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, which was the first decline in recent years. Among them, the output of gasoline and diesel were 4.799 million tons and 10.819 million tons respectively, which was a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% and an increase of 2.6%.
At the same time, due to factors such as basically stopping exports, straining raw materials, increasing prices, and slowing domestic demand, fertilizer production continued to slow in May, with a total output of 5.186 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and an increase of about 11 percentage points year-on-year. Driven by demand, the growth momentum of some high-energy and resource-based products such as caustic soda, calcium carbide, and phosphate rock remains strong. Increases in organic products such as ethylene, synthetic resins, synthetic rubber, and synthetic materials continue to decline. Among them, the growth rate of synthetic rubber fell by about 30 percentage points year-on-year. However, there are also a few products that continue to maintain rapid growth under demand, such as methanol, architectural coatings, and paint.
The petrochemical association analyzed that in the second half of this year, economic growth at home and abroad may further slow down, and demand will further slow down. As the prices of various factors of production continue to rise sharply and the operating costs of companies continue to rise, market pressures have further increased.
Shortage of oil product expansion to the north
Driven by rising cost prices, domestic prices of petroleum and chemical products continued to rise in May. The market supply and demand were basically stable, and production and sales were well connected. The production and sales rate reached 98.86%. Among the 162 kinds of petroleum and chemical products tracked by the petrochemical association, the prices of the 162 types of petroleum and chemical products increased by a year-on-year ratio of 115, accounting for 70.9%; the decrease was 44 kinds, accounting for 27.2%; the flat prices were 3, accounting for 1.9%. The petrochemical association believes that due to the general increase in prices, some chemical products have been slow-moving, the adjustment of market demand structure has been accelerated, and the trend of declining demand for chemical products will continue.
In May, international crude oil prices continued to rise sharply, and the rate of increase also reached the highest level in recent years. WTI (American West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil) average crude oil price reached 122.14 US dollars / barrel, up 91.65% year on year, an increase of a record high; North Sea Brent light crude oil price reached 118.88 US dollars / barrel, up 77.91%. Domestically, the average price of Daqing crude oil reached US$118.86/barrel, up by 78.31% year-on-year; the average price of Shengli crude oil was US$110.8/barrel, up 93.02% over the same period of last year.
International refined oil prices have also continued to rise sharply. Among them, the average price of 95 unleaded gasoline was 126.59 US dollars / barrel, an increase of 43.24%; the average price of diesel oil was 154.21 US dollars / barrel, an increase of 85.31%, an increase of a record high.
According to the analysis of the Petrochemical Association, due to the shortage of resources in the domestic market, the supply pressure of refined oil has increased and the shortage of oil products has expanded from south to north.
Costs boost fertilizer prices
Since April 20th, after the national customs began to impose a special export tariff of 100% on chemical fertilizer products, the fertilizer exports basically stopped. At the same time, domestic fertilizer product inventories have soared and sales have been difficult. However, domestic fertilizer market prices have still not shown signs of falling, and they continue to maintain a strong upward trend.
In May, the domestic market price of urea reached 2,100 yuan/ton, up 16.7% year-on-year; ammonium nitrate was 2,620 yuan/ton, up 69% year-on-year; ammonium bicarbonate price was 750 yuan/ton, up 29.8% year-on-year. The prices of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, imported potassium chloride, and domestic potassium chloride were 4,100 yuan/ton, 4,100 yuan/ton, 4,020 yuan/ton, and 3,200 yuan/ton, up by 107.6%, 59.5%, and 84% respectively year on year. % and 60.8%. The price of compound fertilizers was also very strong, with the prices of chlorine-based and sulfur-based compound fertilizers exceeding 70% year-on-year.
Industry analysts believe that the main reason for the price increase of domestic fertilizer products continues to be mainly cost-driven. The prices of coal, sulfur and other energy and raw materials soared, becoming the main driving force behind the high prices of fertilizer products.
Major chemical products prices slowed
In May, the prices of major domestic inorganic chemical products continued to rise sharply. The average domestic sulfuric acid market price reached 1,220 yuan/ton, up by 144% year-on-year, and up by 18.4% month-on-month; the price of nitric acid was 2,710 yuan/ton, up by 14.8% year-on-year, and up by 5.9% month-on-month; the price of hydrochloric acid declined, and the average market price in May It was 480 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. The price of two alkalis also rose in different ranges, and the price of sulfur continued to rise sharply. In May, the average price of the domestic sulfur market reached 5,860 yuan/ton, which was a year-on-year increase of 255.2% and rose by 16.7% month-on-month. The price of calcium carbide continued to soar, reaching RMB 3840/ton, which was a 48.8% increase year-on-year.
The petrochemical association expects that the prices of major chemical products in the third quarter will continue to maintain an upward trend, but the momentum may slow down. In particular, some recent strong growth products such as sulfur, sulfuric acid, and chemical fertilizers are likely to fall. As energy and raw materials continue to rise, costs increase substantially, and downstream transmission is weak, the chemical market may experience a period of downturn in the second half of the year, mainly due to high prices, increased inventory, and poor sales. Therefore, the market competition will be more intense, corporate profits will be substantially reduced, and the economic benefits of the industry will be further divided.
Related reports: Petrochemical industry promotes the integration of industrialization and information
From June 19 to 20, the 2008 China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Informatization Development Conference was held in Dalian. According to Zhou Zhuye, vice president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, at the request of some enterprises, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association plans to build an oil and chemical industry informatization promotion working committee based on the informatization coordination group of the petroleum and chemical industry. The forces of all parties are seeking effective road to enterprise informatization.
It is understood that the petroleum and chemical industry is one of the industries with earlier application of information technology in China. From concept to application, from blindness to rationality, the industry informationization has undergone a complicated process, during which many companies have caused a waste of funds and resources due to a lack of sufficient knowledge of informationization. At present, the informatization of the petroleum and chemical industries has gradually entered a stage of rational development from blind construction, which is mainly reflected in the fact that information technology will play an increasingly important role in improving the core competitiveness of enterprises and promoting energy conservation and emission reduction. However, as far as the entire petroleum and chemical industry is concerned, due to the large number of companies, the extensive involvement of the industry, and the complex operation and management, it is still the key and difficult point for the construction of industrial enterprises.
Zhou Zhuye stated that informatization is an important technical support and engine for enterprise management innovation, and management innovation is the foundation for realizing enterprise informatization. Both complement each other and promote each other. The integration of informatization and industrialization is an important driving force for the development of the petroleum and chemical industries. The petroleum and chemical industries should deeply understand the significance of the integration of informatization and industrialization, and realize the informatization and production enterprises at multiple levels of technology, products, services, and markets. Deep integration.
Zhou Zhuye introduced that this year, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, entrusted by the National Development and Reform Commission, will carry out the "research project of transforming petroleum and chemical traditional industries with information technology means." In the near future, the association will carry out informatization research on oil and natural gas extraction, petrochemical processing, basic chemical raw materials, organic chemical raw materials, fertilizers, pesticides, synthetic materials, specialty chemical manufacturing, rubber, and other sub-sectors. At the same time, summarize the good typical experiences in the process of enterprise informatization advancement, explore the individualized development of informatization of different types of enterprises, study and put forward industry informatization and standards and development opinions, and write the “Informatization Development Report of Petroleum and Chemical Industry†to formulate oil And laid the foundation for the "12th Five-Year Plan" for informationization in the chemical industry.
Product price rally slows down the chemical industry's economy
According to the analysis report of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the production of the petroleum and chemical industries in May continued to maintain a relatively stable growth trend, and the excessively rapid growth rate continued to fall; the gross industrial output value continued to grow rapidly, but the trend increased over the previous months. slow. In May, as international oil prices continued to rise sharply, the domestic oil price became increasingly upside-down and resources in the refined oil market remained tight. The supply and demand in the chemical market was basically balanced, with a production and sales rate of 98.86%. The overall price trend was still upward.